Voters go to the polls today in Co Meath and Kildare North to elect replacements for Fine Gael ex-Taoiseach John Bruton (now the EU's ambassador to Washington) and Fianna Fail's Charlie McCreevy (former finance minister now a Brussels commissioner), respectively.
Prospects are a mixed bag for Fianna Fail, which even if it wins just one seat will break a losing streak of government parties in by-elections stretching back to 1982, and show recovery after last summer's disastrous local and European elections. In Kildare North, it looks like a tossup. But the real action will be north of there.
In Meath, leading the polls is Shane Cassells of Fianna Fail (whose "campaign diary" sparked comment, more comment and a lot of arguing around the Irish blogosphere) - well, at least according to the Meath Chronicle's poll, unsurprisingly disputed by other candidates and with some questionable methodology. But all eyes will be on the vote for Sinn Fein's Joe Reilly, which will be the first test of electoral strength for Sinn Fein north or south since the collapse of the peace process, the $50 million Northern Bank raid and of course the killing of Robert McCartney.
In 2002, Reilly garnered just over 6,000 votes with 9 percent of the total. But if the Meath Chronicle poll is to be believed, Reilly is on nearly 15pc. Anything over 10 pc will likely be called a win for SF. Which means that observers could be confounded by an improved SF result in heavy political weather. We wait and see.
We'll be out at the count centre in Meath tomorrow, probably do some liveblogging if the Nokia 9210 holds up.
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