Saturday, March 12, 2005

SF�Remarkable Result Pt2

Inside the count room itself, McGuinness and Reilly sat in Spin Corner, the candidate back to back with Fianna Fail's onsite rep minister Noel Dempsey, himself sitting with FG elections director Sen Tom Hayes talking to LMFM predicting how the transfer patterns would shake out.

This was interesting, because it's clear that the transfers from Sinn Fein will make the difference here for FF 's Shane Cassells.

Afterwards, McGuinness shot across the room to Noel Dempsey's side and grasped the minister's hand in both of his. "Hey! Good to see you! How're you doing?" With a big lopsided grin, like nothing had changed since Fianna Fail's Dermot Ahern, foreign affairs minister, predicted less than a year ago that Sinn Fein would be in Government in Dublin 'sooner, rather than later'.

McGuinness' body language was as usual confusingly submissive. Hands folded over each other, arms hanging loose, head bowed to the shorter Dempsey. Both men angled so as to make it easy for the inevitable photographer who would want to capture the moment.

It would be fascinating to know what was going through Dempsey's head at the moment, running calculations about what the political :landscape would look like in two years, if not even the last two months' crises can dent Sinn�Fein's support in the south.

Earlier we spoke with some activists from other parties, notably for the PDs, including the father of Sirena Campbell - a lovely old fella who you can see imparted to his daughter a sense of public duty and the importance of politics, he was furious that the turnout was so low.

We asked all camps of activists the same question, what about those extra 22,000 voting age residents that have moved to Meath since the last election in this the fastest growing area of Ireland? Who's engaging these people? Are they registered? Who are they voting for? Is anyone copying Karl Rove's 'exurbs' strategy of capturing these people?

The mainstream parties' reps all sigh and say that 20 years ago, when politics felt more vital and the country was in constant crisis, FF and FG would work hard at recruiting and outreach. Now, they said, the new residents haven't by and large gotten connected. Go to a house to canvass and ask the young man outside kicking a football if he supports Meath and he'll say 'no way! I'm a Dub!' The only party effectively organised to try and reach the new voters is Sinn Fein. And the party has put a lot into this election.

There's certainly evidence of it. Coming into town this morning I was struck by the differences from just two weeks ago when I was last here. Then, there were no signs to be seen with Gerry Adams' picture on them. None.

This morning not only were they there with Gerry's face all over town, but they had aggressively replaced Fianna Fail posters at key points. And Adams himself was canvassing here this week right up to the wire.

Sinn Fein desperately needed to show that they could maintain their support. They've done that, and more. McGuinness confidently predicted to RTE that after the Westminster elections the peace process would pick up again with new enthusiasm.

Certainly one thing is clear from our perch in the Simonstown Gaels GAA Club (where all the TVs, ironically, are tuned to the rugby): Fianna Fail seems by inclination and necessity to be likely to find ways to keep doing business with Sinn Fein.

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